Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 51.333369 56.791978 62.937619 70.445487 79.477448 90.136920 103.894033
2025-02-09 43.883660 50.968215 59.620327 71.240068 86.902946 108.057810 140.351854
2025-02-16 39.041461 46.699952 56.538630 70.600953 91.132583 121.860830 175.931245
2025-02-23 35.544447 43.434410 53.956243 69.730376 94.289551 134.424667 215.141293
2025-03-02 32.614321 40.490213 51.292592 68.097263 95.649027 144.164883 254.565239
2025-03-09 30.418616 38.281862 49.333468 67.100910 97.649093 155.457651 305.196942
2025-03-16 28.081457 35.653525 46.467014 64.236556 95.796786 158.658947 338.498475
2025-03-23 27.455877 35.390495 47.039079 66.936320 104.428208 186.782670 477.463853
2025-03-30 26.155905 34.029380 45.787850 66.371238 106.684924 201.422214 595.379145
2025-04-06 24.888772 32.623416 44.335749 65.255455 107.581511 213.106296 727.924236
2025-04-13 23.414736 30.816503 42.110216 62.508450 104.541653 212.994133 798.346448
2025-04-20 23.150211 30.825811 42.796658 65.135168 113.760974 253.475765 1344.282231
2025-04-27 22.923653 30.915543 43.684610 68.407468 125.801486 314.859998 3151.765713
2025-05-04 22.268376 30.291695 43.324188 69.213683 132.176345 362.958060 8253.186916
2025-05-11 21.446742 29.349194 42.334256 68.603980 134.691186 397.812087 30331.319393
2025-05-18 20.661706 28.421168 41.299278 67.771961 136.417075 431.873554 NaN
2025-05-25 19.832147 27.378388 39.990499 66.210413 135.694909 452.786853 NaN
2025-06-01 19.151184 26.547606 39.009175 65.257248 136.621190 486.570840 NaN
2025-06-08 18.266764 25.343731 37.287446 62.515028 131.483947 475.123395 NaN
2025-06-15 18.163279 25.432081 37.922208 65.099757 143.997241 617.032592 NaN
2025-06-22 17.658507 24.821291 37.223793 64.558974 146.056784 680.637353 NaN
2025-06-29 17.119270 24.130208 36.336723 63.490828 146.049185 726.606484 NaN
2025-07-06 16.417412 23.138810 34.839104 60.859137 139.918229 694.560176 NaN